Since our last report on the market's current affairs, the three months leading up to the annual closing have only confirmed the market's direction since the beginning of the year. Between record-breaking auctions and mixed results, what has really happened in the automotive world? Aguttes on Wheels provides insights into the trends that may continue into 2024...

A detailed analysis of the numbers unveils an undeniable truth. With over a billion euros in total and nearly 6,000 cars, it's enough to make your head spin! However, when considering that a 23% increase in the number of cars offered at major auctions in the calendar year only generated 2% of the 2023 revenue, we have reason to question the market's health. To fully understand the analysis that follows, we focused on major international and European auctions this year and compared them to similar events held in 2022. This encompasses traditional auctions like Amelia, Paris, and Monterey, as well as some new European-based houses like Iconic Auctioneers in England, Aguttes in France, and Monaco Car Auction in the Principality, known for their high-quality catalogs in terms of both cars presented and results.

"In the end, all indicators are down even though the overall sales rate remains stable at 80%. In contrast, the top 10 most expensive cars of the year show a colossal increase to nearly 188 million euros compared to 102 million in 2022. It's worth noting a significant piece of information: there is a 25-year gap between the two periods, with the average model year in 2023 being 1978 compared to 1953 in 2022. Of course, the Ferrari 250/330 GTO presented at an event by RM Sotheby's inflates the figures, but this 80% increase should be seen in perspective, given that only 11 out of the 20 most expensive cars offered this year were sold. In 2022, that number was 16... Another noteworthy point is that not a single pre-war or 1950s car made it into the top 10 in 2023. This result is partly due to the offerings in the catalogs but also fully represents the changing tastes of buyers. The unique Bugatti Chiron Profilée and the 10-year-old Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 W04 stood out with astronomical prices, but once again, Ferrari occupies a significant place, taking four out of the top five spots in the ranking. Of course, if some of you have noticed that I unceremoniously exclude a 250 GT SWB Spider and a LWB Spider from this ranking, it is solely because they were sold after the auction, with no disclosure of the results. Furthermore, this new practice (understand that a few years ago, post-sale results were never disclosed) aimed at improving sales rates and highlighting the work of auction houses, which are often wrongly criticized for focusing solely on auctions rather than private sales, underscores a trend that is gradually becoming more pronounced.
For example, old practices of concealing the estimate of a signed star, which may be a bit too high, in the hope of lowering the estimate as the auction approaches, no longer work. In second place in the top 10, the exquisite Ferrari 412 P could have certainly attracted more bids if potential buyers had known it could be sold at that price. (Recall the facts: the car was advertised with the mention "price on request" and then with a low estimate of 35 million dollars, and it was eventually sold for 30.2 million dollars). We emphasize once again that the key to a successful sale lies in the estimate! In this regard, Artcurial, with its 250 LM (#5901) presented under the same conditions, also felt the impact. Presented five months later, the consequence will be costly for its seller, but the story doesn't seem to be over... Ferrari 250 LM again (#6167), the lengthy auctions that span two or three days probably had an impact on this excellent car in Monterey at RM Sotheby's, likely due to a tired audience.
Ferrari, Porsche, and Mercedes remain the favorite brands of collectors, or at least the most represented. Owning a Maranello offspring is a safe bet with a stable sales rate around 90%. Porsche is naturally the most represented brand, just ahead of Mercedes-Benz, with a direct impact on the results during a period of stabilization.
Furthermore, much has been written about young collectors searching for cars from their youth. If this happened during the COVID period, a slowdown is now clearly felt, with a distribution of approximately 80/20 between cars made before and after 1992. And for the third consecutive year, the percentage of sales of cars produced after 1992 is higher (91%) than that of older cars (74%), echoing a trend that continues to strengthen. Why 1992, you may ask? Because it marks the swan song for the F40 and the arrival of a new era marked by the death of Enzo Ferrari and the appearance a few years later of the McLaren F1. A date had to be established! As a direct consequence, this entire generation made up of limited editions from Porsche, BMW, Mercedes-Benz AMG, Aston Martin, or Ferrari is experiencing a second youth if they have a clear history and original color designations.

Formula 1 cars from the same period, or even more recent ones, are becoming popular, while the icons of the 1950s, 60s, and 70s are losing ground, such as the Maserati Ghibli, Ferrari Daytona, Lamborghini 400 GT, Aston Martin V8, and Bentley R-Type Continental. In the same vein, pre-war cars, with histories as complicated as the authenticity of their origins, are at a standstill. The sale of the Delage D6 3 Litres, second place in the 1939 24 Hours of Le Mans, in a post-sale at Aguttes is a perfect example. It was its history and accompanying exceptional archives that attracted a French institution dedicated to preserving its heritage.

Today, more than ever, the market wants the best cars, and Gooding proved in Monterey that a 1912 Simplex owned by the same owner for 111 years could compete with more "bankable" cars. At over 3.7 million euros, this unique car was not a surprise but the realization of what we are trying to convey... Only the best!

Finally, allow me to talk to you about the proliferation of online auctions, private auctions, or private sales. While the latter two cannot be analyzed, online auctions continue to play a significant role in the market. However, it is important to note that the average ticket for these sales is around 35,000 euros, mixing the good and the bad without coherence and providing customer service that only guarantees that you are on your own if something goes wrong. On the other hand, the American giant Bring a Trailer is expected to announce a total figure exceeding the 1.22 billion euros recorded in 2022. During the same period, the small British competitor Collecting Cars reported an increase in its turnover of approximately 17%, reaching 244 million euros.

Last but not least... Mecum presented a selection in Kissimmee last weekend that would put its competitors to shame, and it was all done in the Mecum style! Understand that this was a week-long auction, with thousands of cars on offer, auctions that resembled a rodeo far from what we are accustomed to in Europe, and in the end... only a handful of Ferraris heated up the atmosphere, both due to their rarity and prestige, as well as their mere presence in this free-for-all. While the majority of them sold, only the 250 GT SWB California Spider achieved the long-awaited "Sold," leaving the 275 GTS/4 Spider Nart and the 275 GTB/C Speciale behind. There is no doubt that we will likely see them again next summer in different circumstances.

Some key figures to remember:

Across all periods, the percentage of cars sold below the low estimate is 59%, compared to 46% in 2022. 74% of cars made before 1992 (average age in 1961) were sold in quantity, compared to 85% in 2022. 62% were sold below the low estimate, compared to 49% in 2022, and 46% of them were offered without reserve.
On the side of cars born after 1992 (with an average age of 2005), 91% of them find buyers at auctions, with 44% of them selling below the low estimate compared to 39% in 2022, and 43% of them were offered without reserve.

SPRING AUCTION

An "eventful" sale awaits you! Contact us now to register your car for this exceptional event.

We will have the opportunity to meet in two weeks at Rétromobile, but in the meantime, all members of our team are working tirelessly on the catalog for the Spring Sale, which will take place in Paris on Sunday, March 10th. We expect 70 cars to be featured, and the list of those that have already joined us is quite impressive. An exceptional Delahaye 180/175 S Roadster equipped with a 4.5-liter engine and 3 carburetors developing 200 hp (with only 10 survivors) will be alongside an extraordinary barn find from the 1960s, several rigorously selected youngtimers, and the result of Zagato's design genius. After the success of the Autumn Sale, which achieved the best result of the year-end, don't miss out... sell with us!

If you wish to sell a car or your collection, we invite you to get in touch directly with one of our specialists. We are here to advise you and accompany you far beyond the final hammer strike! Contact us now...

Contact:
Gautier Rossignol
epartment Director
+33 7 45 13 75 78
rossignol@aguttes.com

Hugo Baldy
Specialist / Sales Manager
+33 (0)7 60 78 10 18
baldy@aguttes.com